Market Analysis For Current COVID Situation In India : Lockdown, Vaccination and More

COVID is widespread in India in the current times. It is said that the second wave has set upon and people are getting affected very easily. The cases that are getting into light are in huge amounts. In almost all families if one person is affected multiple cases are diagnosed as well in the same family. The problem is faced by every state in the country and it is required to be controlled soon.

The reason why the cases are rising so heavily is because of the lack of awareness among the general public and people in power. There were major rallies going on for election which is the primary reason for widespread COVID.  Also Govt. is allowing the Kumbh Mela to commence which is a great move because it always attracts huge crowds and there are chances for group infection in there.

In such worst times the most hit state is Maharashtra. There are more than 60000 cases reported everyday there. The second wave is dangerous because we lack infrastructure for health. In India only 1.5% of the budget is allocated towards health infrastructure which is very poor as compared to other countries. Lack of medical aid has created a panic situation among the people. This has resulted in mistrust in government at the end.

There are multiple rumors about the BJP party leaders selling and hoarding the Remdevisir injection which is a must to treat COVID diagnosed persons. The opposition is also under complete silence while the entire nation is suffering from this deadly second wave of CoronaVirus.

STATUS OF LOCKDOWN IN INDIA

The chances for lockdown in India are very minimal now. The major reason is the speech of CM of Maharashtra Uddhav Thackeray. In current situation Maharashtra is the worst hit state in the entire nation. Yesterday in the speech the CM said that any kind of lockdown cannot be taken into consideration. This will affect the growth and development of business a lot. Also it will make many people unemployed and hence people would have to again suffer the problems that arise in the first wave of COVID.

Another best thing that has been applied is the Section 144 which bans public gatherings and limitations has been put on working of businesses as well. Only some domains have been given the permission to work while others are advised to continue work from home. It is advised by the CM that people should not get out until and unless it is extremely necessary. Essential commodities are open for businesses.

All these measures suggest that we are not looking at the situation of lockdown in India in any state. More suffering on part of business activities cannot be borne by the nation. On the contrary there is one major concern which is regarding inadequate supply of proper medications and health equipment and facilities. This inadequacy has also reached the vaccine intake.

MEDICAL FACILITIES IN INDIA

There has been a constant shortage of Remdivisir injections in India since last week. People are hoarding the same and this has caused a serious damage to the recovery procedure of many patients. Remdivisir injections which were previously available at 1300 – 1900 Rs are today sold at 4500 – 5000 Rs and some doses are even sold above the MRP. This has created a shortage of doses for those who cannot afford injections of such high price. Though they want to purchase the injections the stock available is negligible. Now Zydus and Cipla have started Email and phone facilities but those as well cannot reach maximum people. Also such services are only for those people who are getting hospitalised. The people who are home quarantined have to continue their search for Remdivisir in the market.

VACCINATION

Talking about the vaccination curriculum. Till now India has only disbursed 6 Crore Dosage of vaccines which is less than 3% of the entire population. The government of India is constantly trying to boost up the availability of vaccines. For this part previously there were only two vaccines available – Covishield and Covaxin. Recently the third vaccine which is Sputnik V by Dr. Reddy’s lab is also given the nod for emergency usage.

Government is trying to get quick vaccines into its pocket. This is the reason why it has brought a rule of foreign vaccine approval procedure to be made quick. This will provide the government with more doses of vaccines then before. Today the situation is so bad that the U.S has blocked the raw material supply which is required for vaccine manufacturing and Many rich countries have ordered more vaccine doses than required. The best example is Canada. Canada has ordered so many vaccines that a person can get vaccinated 5 times.

MARKET SITUATION AND PREDICTIONS BASED ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO

At the current time it is very tough to determine the market flow but one thing’s sure that a major downside is not possible. The reason is the business activities are not halted and there is not complete lockdown imposed. Also the government is trying to fix the health requirements and infrastructure.

Now the main question lies on the direction of the indices further on. With the 2000 point fall in Bank Nifty and 600 points fall in Nifty50 on one single day it was sure that the Indian markets were under panic. People are restless and want to get rid of their holdings to prevent any further potential risk. But recently with the CM of Maharashtra refusing to lock down the SGX Nifty took a hike to 14800 levels. This means the Nifty that was trailing at 14550 levels has increased 250 points. So it can be vaguely assumed that markets would open in green and may recover some more loss part experienced on the bloodbath day 12th April, 2021.

However one should not establish new positions and wait for the market to get stable again. Investing or Trading now may give high returns but the risk associated with is even higher. Hence cautious investing is the only key suitable in the current situation.

One more thing to keep in India is that we need to learn to live with COVID in our lives. Even the vaccines given today would show their effects after 4 months based on the dosage effects on a human body. Hence investors and traders should not panic and the second wave cannot erode much wealth like the previous time period.